Guest: Luke Cooper, Europe's Futures Fellow 2018/19 of the IWM and ERSTE Foundation, historical sociologist, and director of the PeaceRep Ukraine Program. Key Topics: Ukrainian Resilience: Luke Cooper shares insights from his recent trip to Ukraine, describing the resilience and relative normalcy displayed by Ukrainians amid the devastation. He highlights the complex emotions and strong morale that persist even in heavily affected areas. Economic Strategy During Wartime: Ukraine’s transition to a Keynesian wartime economy has been crucial, focusing on public spending and tax adjustments to sustain economic activity. Labor shortages and rising demand due to conscription and migration pose challenges, but Ukraine’s economic adaptability remains a significant strength. Endgame Scenarios for the Conflict: Cooper discusses Ukrainian public opinion on possible resolutions, noting widespread opposition to a frozen conflict and nuanced views on negotiation conditions. He also assesses the critical international factors at play, including oil prices and the upcoming U.S. elections. Impact of UK Politics on EU and Ukraine Relations: Vejvoda and Cooper conclude by exploring the recent shift in UK politics with Labour's win, the implications for UK-EU relations, and the consensus in UK support for Ukraine despite internal political shifts.
In this episode of the Vienna Coffee House Conversations, Ivan Vejvoda is joined by historical scientist Luke Cooper to discuss Ukraine’s resilience in the face of the ongoing Russian invasion and the broader geopolitical challenges facing the country. Cooper shares insights from his recent visits to cities like Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv, noting the surprising resilience and sense of normalcy among Ukrainians amidst conflict. He emphasizes the social and economic impacts of the war, including widespread displacement and the steadfast resolve of those in Russian-occupied regions awaiting liberation.
The conversation explores Ukraine’s economic strategies in response to the invasion, focusing on the government’s shift from initially libertarian policies to a more Keynesian model that emphasizes public spending and wartime fiscal policy. Cooper explains how labor shortages, driven by both military conscription and migration, have impacted Ukraine’s workforce, particularly in vital industrial sectors. These economic measures have helped stabilize the economy despite the ongoing challenges, but the Ukrainian government remains focused on sustaining external financial support to maintain its efforts.
Finally, Cooper and Vejvoda consider the possible scenarios for ending the conflict, discussing public sentiment in Ukraine, the strategic importance of various frontlines, and the precarious international dependencies that affect the country’s future. Cooper highlights the critical role of oil prices and international political dynamics, particularly in the United States, in shaping the war's trajectory. In closing, they briefly examine the UK’s political landscape following the Labour Party’s recent victory, noting its potential impact on UK-EU relations and international support for Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion.
Luke Cooper is a historical sociologist and political scientist specializing in conflict, democracy, and European studies, currently serving as an Associate Professorial Research Fellow at the Conflict and Civicness Research Group at the London School of Economics (LSE). He directs the PeaceRep Ukraine Program and co-founded Another Europe is Possible, an advocacy group focused on progressive European politics. Additionally, Cooper is an established podcaster and author, whose most recent book, Authoritarian Contagion: The Global Threat to Democracy (2021) examines the global rise of authoritarianism.
The blogpost mentioned in the episode on Oil's role in the Ukraine War is here
Read more and buy a copy of Authoritarian Contagion or find it on Amazon
Luke Cooper's X account is @lukecooper100